Slow or Zero Growth Economics in Practice
According to Professor Victor, assuming global GDP/capita increases of 1.4% continue and current population growth projections of 0.7% per year prove correct, the rate of annual global CO2 intensity reductions would have to be 3.9% per year for the next 50 years for CO2 emissions to fall by 60%. However CO2 intensity reductions in the period 1972–1992 were only 1.4% and for 1992–2002 they were only 1.5%. If the trends of 1992–2002 continue then global CO2 emissions will rise by 90% in the next 50 years. To get anywhere near 60% reductions needs radical action. To reach even 40% cuts, based on current annual CO2 intensity reductions, developed countries will need to manage without any growth in GDP.
As we will see later, without such a slowing or halting of developed country growth, developing countries will have no way to lift their billions of Citizens out of poverty without tipping the planet into meltdown.
Developing countries will have no way to lift their billions of Citizens out of poverty without tipping the planet into meltdown.
Victor has undertaken groundbreaking econometric modelling of what a LowGrow economy would look like and its implications for poverty, environment, employment and other factors. His conclusions showed that a low to zero growth economy can indeed bring about the Wellbeing needs of society:
“Looking at Canada since the 1970s we saw that economic growth has not brought full employment, it has not eliminated poverty – in fact by some measures poverty has increased – and it has not solved our environmental problems. Clearly economic growth is not sufficient for meeting any of these objectives. Is it necessary? This is the question that we sought to answer with the help of LowGrow, a simulation model of the Canadian economy. What we found is that it is possible to develop scenarios over a 30 year time horizon for Canada in which full employment prevails, poverty is essentially eliminated, people enjoy more leisure, greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced, and the level of government indebtedness declines, all in the context of low and ultimately no economic growth.”
