Population and Food
According to the UN FAO virtually no progress has been made towards the WFS (World Food Security) target of halving the number of under-nourished people by 2015. World production of grain per person peaked in 1984 at 343 kilograms and has since been in decline. Food prices for things like wheat have doubled since mid 2007.
Food has the highest footprint per dollar spent on goods and services. By 2050 a projected 50% increase in population (to 9bn, mostly in poorer areas), means we need 50% increases in food production, which means 50% increases in water for agriculture. Disturbingly, even now there are water shortages and damages to land productivity through loss of topsoil plus excessive use of pesticides.
Moreover, agricultural productivity during the next 70 years is predicted to decline by at least 20% in tropical areas of Latin America, 30% across Africa and perhaps 40% in India.
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Don’t know if you mention the Millennium Development Goals later on, but they are an example of existing and well supported legislation which needs implementing. There’s no need to reinvent the wheel, we need to be aware of existing rules and instruments which need implementing or supporting (such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Disclosure Act.
Hydroponics are one technology, in-vitro meat is another, that are very important to this equation. I know the Japanese have successfully grown rice hydroponically, an essential staple. And with hydroponics you don’t need pesticides, since the crops grow in a fully sealed-off enclosure.
I’ve seen charts showing Africa completely under-utilised in terms of how much food it could grow, Russia is also very ripe for development in this area … not sure about China. But — aside from the topsoil issue, which is grave — I think food isn’t a worry technically, it only needs the will. And topsoil might have a chance as we move to in-vitro meat (less and less land trampled by cattle) and more hydroponics. It’s a very solvable problem I think.
And UNESCO predicts population peaking at 9.2 billion. The rate of growth is already declining apparently. Not that 9.2 billion isn’t a heck of a lot of people!